Forecast Rainfall for Power Production Management of Namkhan 2 and 3 Hydropower Plants
Volume 3, Issue 4 N. BANGSULIN, A. PROMWUNGKWA, K. NGAMSANROAJ
Published online: 17 August 2017
Article Views: 50
Abstract
This research aims to study rainfall and forecast reservoir management for optimal electricity production for Namkhan 2 and 3 hydropower plants. The statistical data used is 50 years’ data from 1960 to 2009, which is used to predict the rainfall in the future year of 2016. Forecasting algorithms are (1) Forecasts Function in Microsoft Excel (FFME), (2) Minitab software (MNT), (3) Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS), and (4) Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). The SPSS method provides the most accurate results as compared to the others, which is 2.9% different from the actual data. The forecast results are next used as input data for a simulation model for optimizing reservoir management of both hydropower plants. Simulation software is HEC-ResSim3.1, which is used for operations testing for electricity production and water regulation. The input data are the technical data of both HPP and the monthly forecasted rainfall. This study shows the possibility to use the recorded data to predict near future data, which is used as input in the optimization software. The simulation benefits a hydropower plant operator to plan the optimal electricity production.
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To Cite this article
N. Bangsulin, A. Promwungkwa and K. Ngamsanroaj, “Forecast rainfall for power production management of Namkhan 2 and 3 hydropower plants,” International Journal of Technology and Engineering Studies, vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 147-158, 2017.
