Central Bank Intervention and Stock Market Response

Volume 2, Issue 5
AI-CHI HSU 1, FIESTY UTAMI
Published online: 24 October 2016 
Article Views: 31
Abstract
We examined the reaction of stock markets around central bank interventions using an event study framework. In the absence of intervention data, we used proxies for central bank intervention. The dataset encompasses monthly observations for 32 countries during the period 1994 to 2015. We estimated abnormal returns by using the traditional market model. Our empirical analysis indicates that all negative abnormal returns following central bank intervention are significant during the currency crises. This might be because the market forces were too strong, and central banks could not handle those. We also examined the central bank intervention in each country, and we documented some stock markets that give significant reactions to intervention events, especially when central banks have a high number of International reserves they can use. The output of this research will fill a gap in knowledge and understanding of how the stock market reacts to such central bank intervention events over the period 1994 through 2015. Eventually, it will add considerations for central banks before doing an intervention and for investors to respond to central bank intervention.
References
- Adler, G., Lisack, N., & Mano, R. C. (2015). Unveiling the effects of foreign exchange intervention: A panel appraoch.
- Aguilar, J., & Nydahl, S. (2000). Central bank intervention and exchange rates: The case of Sweden. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 10(3), 303-322. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1042-4431(00)00041-X
- Behera, H., Narasimhan, V., & Murty, K. N. (2008). Relationship between exchange rate volatility and central bank intervention: An empirical analysis for India. South Asia Economic Journal, 9(1), 69-84. https://dx.doi.org/10.1177/139156140700900103
- Beine, M., Benassy-Quere, A., & Lecourt, C. (2002). Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: New evidence from Figarch estimations. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21(1), 115-144. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(01)00040-7
- Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1980). Measuring security price performance. Journal of Financial Economics, 8(3), 205-258. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-405X(80)90002-1
- Dianita, M. (2015). Role of the internal auditor influence and good corporate governance in banking financial performance against state owned corporation. International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, 1(4), 76-79.
- Dominguez, Kathryn M. (1998). Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility. Journal of International Money and Finance, 17(1), 161-190. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0261-5606(97)98055-4
- Egert, B., & Kocenda, E. (2014). The impact of macro news and central bank communication on emerging European forex markets. Economic Systems, 38(1), 73-88. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2013.01.004
- Erler, A., Bauer, C., & Herz, B. (2015). To intervene, or not to intervene: Monetary policy and the costs of currency crises. Journal of International Money and Finance, 51, 432-456. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.12.010
- Fama, E. F., & MacBeth, J. D. (1973). Risk, return, and equilibrium: Empirical tests. The Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 607-636. https://dx.doi.org/10.1086/260061
- Fama, E. F., Fisher, L., Jensen, M. C., & Roll, R. (1969). The adjustment of stock prices to new information. International Economic Review, 10(1), 1-21. https://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2525569
- Glen, J. (2002). Devaluations and emerging stock market returns. Emerging Markets Review, 3(4), 409-428. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1566-0141(02)00044-4
- Hartmann, D., & Pierdzioch, C. (2007). Stock returns, exchange rate movements and central bank interventions. Applied Financial Economics Letters, 3(3), 191-195. https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17446540600972435
- Inoue, T. (2015). Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Behavior: Empirical Evidence For India. The Singapore Economic Review, 60(02), 1550016. https://dx.doi.org/10.1142/S0217590815500162
- Kritzman, M. P. (1994). What practitioners need to know about event studies. Financial Analysts Journal, 50(6), 17-20. https://dx.doi.org/10.2469/faj.v50.n6.17
- Layyinaturrobaniyah., Masyita, D., & Sekartadjie, G. (2016). Fundamental and technical analyses for stock investment decision making. Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, 2(1), 1-7.
- MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). Event studies in economics and finance. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(1), 13-39.
- Madura, Jeff. (2002). Financial markets and institutions (6th ed.). Hardcover. South-Western, Print.
- Markus. (2003). Value relevance of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Equity Strategy Research.
- Papadamou, S., Sidiropoulos, M., & Spyromitros, E. (2014). Does central bank transparency affect stock market volatility? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 31, 362-377. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.05.002
- Patro, D. K., Wald, J. K., & Wu, Y. (2014). Currency devaluation and stock market response: An empirical analysis. Journal of International Money and Finance, 40, 79-94. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.09.005
- Pattanaik, S., & Sahoo, S. (2003). The Effectiveness of Intervention in India: An Empirical Assessment. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 22.
- Reboredo, J. C., Rivera-Castro, M. A., & Ugolini, A. (2015). Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices. Journal of Banking & Finance, 62, 76-96. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.10.011
- Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2011). From financial crash to debt crisis. The American Economic Review, 101(5), 1676-1706. https://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.5.1676
- Tsen, W. H. (2014). Exchange rate and central bank intervention. Journal of Global Economics, 2(1), 1-4.
To Cite this article
Hsu, A., & Utami, F. (2016). Central bank intervention and stock market response. International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, 2(5), 151-161.
|