The Implementation of Fuzzy Logic to Predict the Bankruptcy of Company in Indonesia



Volume 1, Issue 4
Ednawati Rainarli, Aurelius Aaron

Published online: 05 December 2015
Article Views: 31

Abstract

Prediction of company bankruptcy is generally used to determine the risk of harm caused by the inability of debtors in basic payment of its debt, interest rate, or both. This research will be built on fuzzy model to predict the company’s bankruptcy based on the company’s characteristics. The data used would be obtained from the financial reports of public companies taken from the Indonesian Stock Exchange to do a correlation test. After a correlation test would be conducted, it would be found that the financial ratios influence one year before bankruptcy and two years before the bankruptcy. Those ratios are used as parameter input of the fuzzy model. The output of defuzzification of the fuzzy model is a prediction of bankruptcy for each company. After conducting testing, we saw that the fuzzy model could predict the bankruptcy of 65 public companies to the year before bankruptcy and two years before the bankruptcy, with the accuracy for each being 81,54% and 83,85%. Based on these results, fuzzy logic can be used as an alternative to predict events in the future with a high degree of uncertainty, especially for the characteristic of the companies’ conditions in Indonesia.

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To Cite this article

Rainarli, E., & Aaron, A. (2015). The implementation of fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of company in Indonesia. International Journal of Business and Administrative Studies, 1(4), 147-154.