This article examines the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and economic growth in a group of economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The study focuses on nine countries: Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates, using annual data covering the period 2002–2018. Economic growth, measured by real GDP growth, is the dependent variable, while foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation, unemployment, domestic investment, public debt, and population are considered independent variables.
The empirical analysis is conducted within a panel data model, using a two-factor fixed-effects model that accounts for country-specific characteristics and their evolution over time. A random-effects model is estimated as an alternative, and the Hausman test is used to determine the most appropriate model. This test yields a χ 2 value of 17.280 and a p-value of 0.008, confirming the fixed-effects model.
The results indicate a positive relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth. However, the estimated correlation coefficient of 0.221 is not supported by classical statistical data. Inflation shows a slightly negative correlation coefficient (−0.004), while unemployment shows a positive coefficient (0.286); neither of these correlations is statistically significant. Domestic investment registers a correlation coefficient of −0.460 and shows a statistically significant relationship with economic growth (p < 0.015). Public debt is positively correlated with growth, with a correlation coefficient of 1.885 and a marginal level of statistical significance (p < 0.059). Population also shows a positive, but statistically weak, correlation coefficient.
The selected model shows a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 0.438. Overall, the results show that the relationship between macroeconomic factors and economic growth varies across the countries studied, with domestic investment and public debt showing the strongest statistical correlations in the estimated model.

1. Abou Hamia, M. A. (2024). Why developing countries need a new central bank paradigm: Evidence from the middle east and north africa region. Economic Systems, 48(4), 101230. doi:10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101230
2. Alsamara, M., Mrabet, Z., & Mimouni, K. (2024). The threshold effects of public debt on economic growth in mena countries: Do energy endowments matter? International Review of Economics & Finance, 89, 458–470. doi:10.1016/j.iref.2023.10.015
3. Alshammary, M. D., Karim, Z. A., Khalid, N., & Ahmad, R. (2020). Debt-growth nexus in the mena region: Evidence from a panel threshold analysis. Economies, 8(4), 102. doi:10.3390/economies8040102
4. Ben Yedder, N., & Ellouze, A. (2024). Exploring the dynamic links between fdi and economic growth in mena countries. International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, 8(2), 642–650. doi:10.47772/IJRISS.2024.802043
5. Campos, N. F., & Kinoshita, Y. (2002). Foreign direct investment as technology transferred: Some panel evidence from the transition economies. The Manchester School, 70(3), 398–419.
6. International Monetary Fund. (2021). Regional economic outlook: Middle east and central asia. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
7. International Monetary Fund. (2023). Regional economic outlook: Middle east and central asia. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
8. International Monetary Fund. (2024). Regional economic outlook: Middle east and central asia. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.
9. Mohamed, E.-S., Elmoussaoui, K., Ouali, I., El-Abbadi, M., & Benboubker, M. (2025). The impact of exchange rate and inflation on economic growth: Empirical evidence from the mena region using panel data analysis. Journal of Ecohumanism, 3(8), 12405–12416. doi:10.62754/joe.v3i8.5848
10. Ochi, A., Haouas, I., & Saidi, K. (2024). Institutional quality, human capital, and the growth effects of foreign direct investment in mena countries.
11. Saliha, M., & Benyoub, A. (2025). The macroeconomic and covid-19 effects on economic growth: Empirical evidence from some mena countries. Journal of Economics and Human Development, 16(2), 241–255. doi:10.35658/ 1445-016-002-017
12. Siddik, M. N. A. (2023). Does macroeconomic stability promote economic growth? some econometric evidence from saarc countries. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 7(3), 358–379. doi:10.1108/AJEB-05-2022-0052
13. Soltani, H. (2025). Exploring the finance–growth nexus in mena: A dynamic panel approach with institutional and macroeconomic variables. Milaf Journal for Research and Studies, 11(1), 300–308.
14. World Bank. (2025). World development report 2025: Standards for development. Washington, DC: World Bank. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/wdr2025 doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-2134-2
15. World Bank Group. (2024). World bank group annual report 2024: A better bank for a better world. Washington, DC: World Bank. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/annual-report-2024 doi:10.18356/9789210031868
16. Zirari, B., Souar, Y., Benziane, R., & Lefilef, A. (2023). Panel data on the impact of democracy and political stability on economic growth in the mena region over the years 1983–2022. Data in Brief , 49, 109389. doi:10.1016/j.dib.2023.10938

Chenini, T. (2025). The Impact of Macroeconomic Stability on Economic Growth in MENACountries: A Panel Data Analysis. International Journal of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, 11(1), 35-44. doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.20469/ijhss.11.20001-4